Benchmark Annualized Market Returns 2017

Investment Annuity presents 2016's market returns for stocks, bonds, Real Estate, and International markets

The Data

We’ve taken a look at market return totals for the last year, and we want to share them here today. We wanted to make this information available to our long-term annuity investors, as our work with Investment Only Variable Annuities is all about investing in market-based investments. This is a large amount of data, so we’re hoping you’ll refer to it for your view of last year’s market information throughout the year.

This isn’t going to be like other articles we write here on the Investment Annuity- it’s not about Variable Annuities, Portland, Oregon, Real Estate, 1035 exchanges, etc. We don’t want to add too much of our own commentary here, because we don’t want to give the impression we’re passively endorsing any of these assets in particular or giving some form of investment advice- we’re not, we’re just reporting raw market return information.

We’ve looked to Mornistar.com, Bloomberg, the St. Louis Federal Reserve, and the Institute of Business & Finance’s annual Benchmark Returns reports for this data.

The Numbers

Without further ado, we present the annualized market return data of key market sectors for 2016 with a minimum of commentary. We’ve included both this year’s returns and average returns for the sector. For Equities (stocks) we’ve included the average Price to Earning (P/E) Ratio for the benchmark as tabulated by the Institute of Business & Finance. For Fixed Income (bonds) we’ve included average duration of the relevant sector as well.

US Major Stock Market Indexes

S&P Total U.S. Stock Market

21
P/E Ratio
2016 Returns13%
3-Year Average9%
5-Year Average15%

U.S. Growth Stocks

25
P/E Ratio
2016 Returns7%
3-Year Average8%
5-Year Average14%

U.S. Value Stocks

18
P/E Ratio
2016 Returns18%
3-Year Average9%
5-Year Average15%

Russell 3000

21
P/E Ratio
2016 Returns13%
3-Year Average8%
5-Year Average15%

S&P 500

21
P/E Ratio
2016 Returns12%
3-Year Average9%
5-Year Average15%
25
S&P 500 Growth P/E
7
S&P 500 Growth Returns 2016
17
S&P 500 Value P/E
17
S&P 500 Value Returns 2016

S&P Small Cap

24
P/E Ratio
2016 Returns27%
3-Year Average9%
5-Year Average17%
21
Micro Cap P/E
20
Micro Cap Returns 2016
16
Micro Cap 5-Year Avg
5
Micro Cap 10-Year Avg
31
S&P 600 Growth P/E
22
S&P 600 Growth Returns 2016
16
S&P 600 Growth 5-Year Avg
10
S&P 600 Growth 10-Year Avg
19
S&P 600 Value P/E
31
S&P 600 Value Returns 2016
17
S&P 600 Value 5-Year Avg
8
S&P 600 Value 10-Year Avg

Real Estate

Real Estate is a market sector that offers investors many methods of investing. Tax impacts of investing in the individual Real Estate markets can be complicated, and for many, putting away money for the Real Estate sector in a deferred vehicle such as Investment Only Variable Annuity (IOVA), and IRA, etc., is a tax-smart option. It is easy for broader market investors to access Real Estate these days via Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) stocks, mutual funds, etc.

For this report, we present market return data for 3 different market sectors with marketable (traded on an exchange like the NYSE) Real Estate securities: Residential, Broad Market REIT, and Mortgage Real Estate.

Real Estate

16
P/E Ratio
2016 Returns8%
3-Year Average12%
5-Year Average11%

Residential Real Estate

17
P/E Ratio
2016 Returns3%
3-Year Average16%
5-Year Average12%

Mortgage Real Estate

22
P/E Ratio
2016 Returns22%
3-Year Average9%
5-Year Average10%

Fixed Income

For our look at Fixed Income (bond) markets in 2016, we’ve included the effective duration as calculated by the Institute of Business & Finance additional to market return data. This is a measure used by bond investors to look at volatility of a bond as well as a measurement of how long until a bond is paid off (it isn’t the same thing as maturity– when a bond’s principal is paid back to the investor).

We look at 8 different bond indexes with different issuers (Corporate, Government, etc), maturities, and quality in this report. There are many bond indexes, so we’ve had to limit ourselves to indexes relevant to our investors (that is long-term Variable Annuity investors).

iBoxx Investment Corporate Index

12
Effective Duration
2016 Returns6%
3-Year Average5%
5-Year Average5%

3-7 Year U.S. Treasuries

5
Effective Duration
2016 Returns1%
3-Year Average2%
5-Year Average1%

10-20 Year U.S. Treasuries

13
Effective Duration
2016 Returns1%
3-Year Average5%
5-Year Average2%

20+ Year U.S. Treasuries

26
Effective Duration
2016 Returns1%
3-Year Average8%
5-Year Average3%

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)

8
Effective Duration
2016 Returns5%
3-Year Average2%
5-Year Average1%

Mortgage Backed Bonds

8
Effective Duration
2016 Returns22%
3-Year Average9%
5-Year Average10%

iBoxx High Yield Bonds

4
Effective Duration
2016 Returns15%
3-Year Average4%
5-Year Average6%

A-Rated Corporate Bonds

4
Effective Duration
2016 Returns4%
3-Year Average4%
5-Year Average4%

International Stock Market Indexes

MSCI All World ex-U.S. Stocks

18
P/E Ratio
2016 Returns8%
3-Year Average3%
5-Year Average9%

EAFE Large & Midcap Stocks

17
P/E Ratio
2016 Returns1%
3-Year Average3%
5-Year Average9%

EAFE Small Cap Stocks

17
P/E Ratio
2016 Returns2%
3-Year Average2%
5-Year Average11%

Emerging Market Stocks

12
P/E Ratio
2016 Returns11%
3-Year Average1%
5-Year Average1%

Thank you for taking the time to read over our market return report. Let us know if there’s any data that you’d like to see for next time that you didn’t see this time. This is an annual update, so we’ll be back to regular Oregon oriented economic blog posts next week.

Meet the Author & Portfolio Manager

Victor Schramm is a Certified Fund Specialist (CFS®), with expertise in Mutual Funds & Variable Annuity Separate Accounts. He focuses on long term investing geared toward our annuity clients as a Fee Only Investment Advisor. He lives in Portland, OR.

Victor Schramm, CFS®Analyst & Portfolio Manager

Disclaimer

This information is solely a representation of publicly available facts intended for educational use only. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell any public or private Security, in any city named in the article or elsewhere. Benchmark Market Return data is not to be used as a timing tool to time purchases or sales of marketable securities- these numbers are for use as comparison tools only. As always, past performance does not guarantee future performance. All data from Morningstar, Bloomberg.com, and the Institute of Business & Finance.