Oregon, Idaho, Washington Lead US Average in Recent Economic Report
Pacific Northwest Relatively Strong in the BLS Coincident Economic Activity Index for January, 2017
The Index
Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes an index of Coincident Economic Activity for all 50 states. This coincident index is produced a number of days after the month’s employment data. This index is based on four factors: average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers; wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index; unemployment rate; and nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers.
Coincident Economic Activity is any metric of economic activity that gauges current activity. There are also lagging indicators which demonstrate what has happened in an economy and leading indicators which predict future activity. Coincident indicators are useful to economists and investors when interrogating the overall health of the business cycle.
By the Numbers
The Pacific Northwest states all lead the Coincident Index average for the United States in the last three months. The US average was 0.42%. Idaho lead the Northwest with an average three month growth rate of 1.17%. Oregon followed with 0.93%, with Washington closer to the national average at 0.57%.
These numbers are in line with recent reports we’ve covered here at Investment Annuity over the past few months- from things like demographic shifts toward these states in national moving studies to GDP growth. In an upcoming report this week, we will be looking at one dimension of current growth in the Northwest- growth in the Real Estate sector. Whereas we usually speak in terms of the Case-Shiller housing index, we’ll be looking at the growth in Real Estate business incomes across Idaho, Oregon, and Washington.
We’ll also be covering the anticipated new release of this coincident index. Today, we’ve covered the updated numbers from January, but we anticipate a new month of data imminently.
United States Average Coincident Index Growth- Three Month Average, 1/2017
Oregon Coincident Index Growth
Idaho Coincident Index Growth
Washington Coincident Index Growth
Coincident Economic Activity Index
Meet the Author & Portfolio Manager
Victor Schramm is a Certified Fund Specialist (CFS®), with expertise in Mutual Funds & Variable Annuity Separate Accounts. He focuses on long term investing geared toward our annuity clients as a Fee Only Investment Advisor. He lives in Portland, OR.
Victor Schramm, CFS®Analyst & Portfolio Manager
Thank you for reading our report on the Pacific Northwest’s current economic activity. We expect to write a number of related reports on the broader Pacific Northwest region- while we are an Oregon based firm, we pay attention to economic trends across the region. Join us next time, when we discuss the growth in Real Estate sector incomes in the Pacific Northwest.
All data obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics via the St. Louis Federal Reserve database (FRED).
Disclaimer: This information is solely a representation of publicly available facts intended for educational use only. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell any public or private Security, in any city named in the article or elsewhere. Coincident Economic Activity is not to be used as a timing tool for buying or selling any security, in the named regions or elsewhere.