It shouldn’t be hard to imagine why the Mexican Peso was highly sensitive to the outcome of the 2016 US election results. During the campaign, Donald Trump professed skepticism to NAFTA- calling it the “worst trade deal maybe ever signed anywhere.” 1 He campaigned on the idea of building a wall between Mexico and the United States, and coercing Mexico into paying for it. He went on the war-path to get American manufacturers to remain in the U.S.

The immediate reaction in the currency markets seemed to confirm the negative outlook for the Peso in the wake of a Trump administration. The Peso fell to record lows the night of the election, losing an eye-popping 13% in one night. 2 For currency markets, which are highly liquid and relatively efficient, a one session 13% drop was a nearly unprecedented move. In the following months, the Peso made a series of new lows with the addition of an oil tax that put public pressure on PEMEX (the Mexican Oil giant) and Mexico’s government. So what happened since that critical juncture to today- one year after the 13% drop?

The Peso sat at 16 to $1 USD in mid-November of 2015. That was already a great increase from the same time in 2014, when it hovered around 13.6 to $1. From 2015 to November of 2016, even as the US election looked to favor candidate Hillary Clinton, the Peso hit 19 to $1 leading up to election night.

From election night onward, it took until January 20th of 2017 for the Peso to hit its all time lowest point against the dollar, closing at 21.58 to $1. This was in the midst of unrest around the country in reaction to a gas tax that went into effect on January 1st, 2017. 3 For Mexicans already fretting about loss of purchasing power, the tax hike was worrying.

In the end, speculators who positioned to capitalize the frenzied weakening of the Peso in early 2017 would end up sorely disappointed: as of November 10th, 2017, the Peso now stands at 19.06 to $1. From precisely one year back, that’s actually a decrease from 20.45- a 7.3% increase in value Year over Year. This may defy many expectations, but once speculation about what could result from a Trump election quieted, Mexico’s fundamental trade data has been reassuring to currency markets: Mexican vehicle exports managed to increase 13% since the 2016 elections, for instance. 4

Interestingly, the fate of the Peso versus the Dollar has faired similar to other crucial currency pairings with the Dollar. For example, one of the world’s most important currency pairs- the US Dollar to the Japanese Yen (aka USD/JPY)- has moved in similar patterns to the USD/Mexican Peso (USD/MXN).

When the Dollar was it’s strongest versus the Peso, is was also at its highest against the Yen around the same time. Both the Yen and the Peso strengthened a great deal from January through the Spring, culminating in strong prices against the Dollar in April of 2017. At different points, the velocity of movements have differed between the Yen and Peso, but they have often headed similar directions. This needs to be looked at closely by global investors trying to understand why the Peso has leveled out to 19 Pesos to the Dollar once again heading in to 2018.

The Peso is ending 2017 roughly where it was this time in 2016. Considering the grim outlook and painful devaluation of earlier this year, the Peso ending 2017 in the 19 to $1 USD would be a real coup for Mexico. Markets keep looking to decent industrial output and increasing exports on the one hand versus threats of renegotiating NAFTA and creating a surcharge tax on remittances from the US to Mexico on money wires on the other. All things considered, 2017 being a wash for Peso prices is a decent outcome for the beleaguered currency.