Portland Subprime Credit has Improved Again for 8th Consecutive Quarter
According to a new report from Equifax, there’s been another improvement in Portland Subprime Credit. The percentage of Portland (Multnomah County) that is classified as subprime in terms of creditability has declined again. 1 In the new report, updated January 10th, the proportion of Portland’s population with subprime credit is now 20.85%. That’s down a very slim margin from last quarter’s 20.86%.
Despite the small size of the improvement last quarter, it marks the 8th consecutive quarter that this data has improved. In Q4 of 2015, 22.84% of Portlanders had subprime ratings. Portland’s subprime data has improved ever since then.
Portland Credit Ratings are Up in Latest Quarter
8 Quarters of Improvements Demonstrate Strong Credit Cycle
Portland Population Subprime Percent Fell over 2% in 2 Years
Credit Report Stands Out Among Mixed Economic Signals
The Credit Cycle
Oregon’s economy has showed increasingly mixed signals in the past year. Even as the overall balance of evidence has shown that Oregon- and Portland in particular- has continued its strong rebound from the 2008 Recession, there have been moments of pause for analysts in the Pacific Northwest. On this blog, we talked about the fact that Oregon’s Leading Index was negative for the first time since 2008 just two months ago- something most economists would treat with some alarm. 2
Nonetheless, a decrease in the population of a region that are identified as having subprime credit is an intriguing indicator for an economy. There are plenty of investors and analysts who look at the credit cycle as the driver of business and market cycles (3), and aggregate credit health is a strong component of analyzing any credit cycle. With that in mind, we find it heartening to see a continued improvement in the region’s credit strength.
Equifax Subprime Credit
Equifax Subprime Credit Population report represents the percentage of the population sample with a credit score below 660. Counties with fewer than 20 people in the sample are not reported for privacy reasons. It’s produced Quarterly by the Credit agency itself.
Equifax organizes and analyzes data on more than 800 million consumers and more than 88 million businesses worldwide. Its databases include employee data contributed from more than 5,000 employers.
Portland Population Subprime Credit, 2007-2017
Conclusion
This may not seem like the most thrilling data set in regards to regional economics. Indeed, the lack of coverage of this interesting report shows that analyzing our position in the credit cycle is not top of mind for much of the financial and regional press. However, we hope bringing it to attention will help our readers- who are overwhelmingly oriented towards long-term investing understand where we are in the economic cycle.
Thanks for joining us in our discussion of Portland Subprime Credit. We find credit, business, and economic cycles fascinating, as do most of our long-term readers. It makes, considering we are Investment Only Variable Annuity focused here. We hope to bring you some new regional economic data soon!
All information from this article from the Federal Reserve of St. Louis & Equifax.
Meet the Author & Portfolio Manager
Victor Schramm is a Certified Fund Specialist (CFS®), with expertise in Mutual Funds & Variable Annuity Separate Accounts. He focuses on long term investing geared toward our annuity clients as a Fee Only Investment Advisor. He lives in Portland, OR.
Victor Schramm, CFS®Analyst & Portfolio Manager
Disclaimer:
This information is solely a representation of publicly available facts intended for educational use only. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell any public or private Security, in any city named in the article or elsewhere. No information provided here about Portland Subprime Credit is to be used as a market timing tool for buying or selling any security. Aggregate Credit data analysis is very complex, and requires a high degree of due diligence and expertise- this article is not investment diligence or investment advice in any form.